China’s fast expansion as a poultry exporter could create a structural pricing threat for Brazilian meatpackers, particularly in chicken breast, according to analysts at BTG Pactual.
China’s share of global chicken exports is expected to reach 9.5% in 2026, up from about 3% less than a decade ago, BTG analysts Thiago Duarte and Guilherme Guttilla said in a report, citing US Department of Agriculture estimates.
That would make China the world’s third-largest chicken exporter, overtaking Thailand. Brazil would remain the leader with a 35% share, followed by the US at 20%.
The expansion reflects rapid growth in China’s poultry industry. The country is already the world’s second-largest chicken producer after the US.
The USDA expects Chinese production to rise 5% to 17.3 million metric tons in 2026. Some private estimates point to double-digit growth, according to BTG.
A growing domestic surplus would give China more product to sell abroad, potentially weighing on global chicken prices and margins for processors in Brazil and the US.
“China’s track record of rapidly scaling several industries suggests that it would be unwise to dismiss its potential to become one of the world’s lowest-cost chicken producers,” the analysts wrote.
Breast-Meat Competition
China’s consumption profile could intensify the challenge for Brazilian exporters.
Chinese buyers continue to import large volumes of chicken feet and other products favored by local consumers, while the country increasingly exports cuts that face weaker domestic demand, including chicken breast, Duarte and Guttilla said.
That trade pattern could put Chinese suppliers in more direct competition with Brazil in markets such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where breast meat commands attractive prices.
China also benefits from being geographically closer to those destinations, giving its exporters a potential freight advantage over Brazilian processors.
The continued expansion of Chinese chicken-breast exports represents a “relevant structural pricing risk” for Brazilian exporters, the analysts said.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
