Energy drinks have overtaken coffee for the first time as the preferred source of caffeine among young Americans, as a proliferation of zero-sugar products helps the category win consumers across age groups, according to Citi Research.
Among US consumers aged 16 to 24, 31% now cite energy drinks as their preferred caffeine source, up from 21% last year. Coffee, meanwhile, plunged to 27% from 40%, according to the bank’s survey.
The shift adds to evidence of a broader change in caffeine consumption that could have implications for coffee demand. Energy drinks gained ground in every age bracket surveyed by Citi, even as coffee remains the leading caffeine source overall.
Citi linked much of the momentum to the growing availability of sugar-free products. Both Euromonitor and Nielsen data show that gains in the energy-drink category are being driven by reduced- and zero-sugar offerings, the bank said.
Light energy drinks now account for 45% of US category sales, up from 37% in 2021 and just 14% in 2011.
The US energy-drink market grew 12% in 2025 from a year earlier, according to Citi. Sales are up another 10% through July this year, driven largely by product innovation.
“Our analysis supports the bullish long-term outlook,” Citi said. Two-year average growth rates have accelerated on the back of innovations such as zero-sugar versions and increased consumption among women, which the bank partly attributes to a wider range of flavors.
Other growth drivers include new products targeting functional performance and lifestyle consumers, increased shelf space as the price gap with soft drinks narrows, and consumers switching from other beverage categories.
Citi maintains buy ratings on Monster Beverage and Celsius Holdings, which it said have the greatest exposure to the energy-drink category, as well as Keurig Dr Pepper, the beverage company whose portfolio has growing exposure to energy drinks.
Outside the US, the largest energy-drink markets are China, with 10.5% of global sales, Germany with 4.8%, the UK with 4.6%, Japan with 3.8% and Brazil with 3%, according to Euromonitor data cited by Citi.
In Brazil, Vinicius Estrela, executive director of the Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA), said he recognizes a trend of consumers replacing coffee with energy drinks as a caffeine source, but sees less of a threat to specialty coffee.
“There isn’t direct competition because specialty coffee isn’t just about staying awake — it’s also about the experience and indulgence,” Estrela told The AgriBiz.
He compared coffee with products such as chocolate, beer and meat, where consumers have increasingly sought more sophisticated experiences.
“Does coffee keep you awake? Yes. Does it give you energy? Yes. But just as it’s no longer enough for chocolate to be sweet or beer to be cold, coffee today is also a source of pleasure,” Estrela said.
Change Also Among Older Consumers
Consumers who switched to energy drinks migrated primarily from coffee, with 45% saying they had previously preferred it as a caffeine source. Another 30% switched from soft drinks and 10% from tea, according to Citi.
Energy drinks also gained among older consumers, though at a somewhat slower pace.
Among people aged 25 to 34, preference for energy drinks rose to 24% from 19% in 2025. Coffee remained the top choice at 40% among the survey’s 2,400 respondents in that age group, but that was down 10 percentage points from a year earlier.
Among consumers aged 35 to 44, coffee preference held steady at about 44%. Energy drinks still gained sharply, rising to 23.6% from 16.8%, with tea losing ground in that age bracket.
Consumers over 55 were the only group in which coffee increased its share as a preferred caffeine source, reaching 60% from 58% in 2025. Yet energy drinks also climbed, to 12% from 8%, in this case taking share from soft drinks.
Across all age groups, 24% of respondents cited energy drinks as their preferred caffeine source, up from 17% in 2025. Coffee fell to 41% from 47%.
The trend does not represent direct competition for coffee beans as a raw material. Most caffeine used in energy drinks is synthetic and produced in laboratories, according to a beverage-industry specialist in Brazil. The molecule is the same, though the specialist said the body absorbs synthetic caffeine more quickly.
Some energy drinks use caffeine extracted from natural sources. In those products, guarana extract is a common source.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
