A recent rally in soybean prices has boosted farmer sentiment in Brazil and reignited purchases of crop inputs for the 2026/27 season.
The pace of deals has also accelerated in recent weeks amid renewed fears on rising crop nutrient prices, the release of funding under Brazil’s subsidized farm-credit program, and the approaching planting season, according to agricultural intelligence firm Veeries.
Roughly two-thirds of the fertilizer needed for the 2026/27 soybean season has already been sold, Veeries said. By July 15, farmers had completed purchases covering 78% of fertilizer demand for planting, which begins in September, as the soybean fertilizer exchange ratio improved to levels last seen in 2025.
Even so, sales remain behind the three-year average of 82% for the first half of July.
Purchasing activity has remained strong in recent weeks, supported in part by events organized by banks and cooperatives to help farmers prepare financing plans for the upcoming season, said Fábio Meneghin, a partner at Veeries.
As financing applications are approved and credit is released, more transactions are expected to follow. “I believe the input market will remain firm through August,” Meneghin said.
Farmer sentiment has improved noticeably compared with three or four months ago, “mainly because of soybeans,” he said. Soybean prices at the port of Paranagua have risen nearly 10% over the past 30 days, according to Cepea’s benchmark index. Prices settled at 145 reais per 60-kilogram bag on Thursday after approaching 150 reais last week, the highest level since December.
Shrinking Market
The recent recovery follows a period in which fertilizer sales were virtually at a standstill through early July, but it does not mean 2026 will be a strong year for the industry, particularly for fertilizer suppliers, said Marcos Rubin, also a partner at Veeries.
“The fact that sales have picked up over the past few weeks does not mean the fertilizer market will be the same size as last year. We expect it to decline,” Rubin said.
Industry estimates point to a 5% to 10% drop in fertilizer deliveries in 2026. Veeries projects shipments will fall 7% to 45.7 million metric tons.
Rubin said growers are likely to reduce fertilizer application rates, particularly phosphate products, on soybean fields. Prices remain elevated, there is little expectation of relief, and the import window for the summer crop is closing. Farmers who delay purchases too long should face the risk of supply shortages as logistical bottlenecks in the Middle East continue to disrupt sulfur shipments, a key feedstock for phosphate fertilizer production.
Another concern is the profile of growers who have yet to secure fertilizer for the 2026/27 season, representing roughly one-third of the market. According to Veeries, most of that remaining demand is concentrated among distributors, where credit conditions are more restrictive and farmers tend to be less capitalized and face a higher risk of default.
Safrinha Corn
Fertilizer sales for Brazil’s safrinha corn, the second crop planted on the same land after the soybean harvest, have also recovered, advancing 15 percentage points over the past 30 days, according to Veeries.
About 30% of the fertilizer required for the crop had been purchased by mid-July, only one percentage point below the three-year average.
Although corn prices have not risen as sharply as soybean prices, the fertilizer exchange ratio has improved to levels better than those seen in 2025. Growers are also concerned that nitrogen fertilizer prices could rise again if instability in the Middle East persists.
“Farmers have once again become concerned about fertilizer price dynamics,” Rubin said.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
